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Investor’s Guide

Limited upside potential

Progress of monsoon and first quarter results will impact investor sentiments this week. Investors will also react to the Parliament proceedings which have been in a deadlock. August 13 is the last day of the monsoon session of the parliament. Progress on important bills like the Land Acquisition Bill and GST is important from the market point of view. However the Nifty is witnessed near 300-points rise in the past 10 trading sessions. It means near term resistance to upside in Nifty.

During the week gone by the stock market managed to keep itself in the green with the Sensex and the Nifty gaining 0.4 per cent each. Decision by the government to infuse funds into PSU banks helped support sentiments to some extent. Consequently the CNX PSU Bank index surged five per cent.

While the good monsoon in initial season had helped the Indian stock market to put on some weight the optimism has started to fizzle out as cumulative monsoon this season continues to deteriorate with a six per cent deficit as of August 6. Also while inflation is broadly under control at the current juncture it is the uncertain impact of a probable below normal monsoon on inflation, which has been preventing RBI from cutting rates. The RBI Governor is maintained status quo in the policy. Further with a large part of the 1Q earnings season through with no positive surprise at the aggregate level is keeping investors at bay. Hitesh Agarwal, Reliance Securities.

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