BY PRAFUL BIDWAI

IT’S impossible not to be moved by the human misery and devastation caused by the floods in Pakistan. An area the size of England is submerged. Twenty million people are affected–even more than by the 2004 tsunami in Asia.

The floods’ economic damage is staggering: 5 million homes destroyed, 7,000 schools washed away, 8,000 kilometres of roads and railways ripped up, hundreds of thousands of bridges and electric pylons uprooted, millions of hectares of land with standing crops inundated.

It will take Pakistan many years to rebuild its infrastructure. Only half of the international aid needed for immediate relief has arrived.

Human Tragedy

Even worse than the economic devastation is the human tragedy. Pakistan’s poor are the greatest victims–as happens in natural disasters everywhere. The social impact of calamities is always unevenly distributed. The poor live in inferior habitats in vulnerable and insecure areas. Their reach to relief administrations is far weaker than that of the middle class.

It’s heart-rending to see Pakistan’s already battered people being attacked by water-borne diseases. Especially distressing is the plight of children, who account for two-fifths of the victims, and are especially vulnerable.

Elementary ethical considerations–and common bonds of humanity–demand that the world respond to Pakistan’s crisis with urgency and generosity.

This disaster could well have occurred in India. India and Pakistan belong to the same geographical region, agro-climatic zones and ecosystem. They share the waters of the Indus river system, and more.

Both are more vulnerable to long-term climate change and short-term erratic weather patterns than much of the world. Their administrative structures are inherited from the same colonial bureaucracy, notorious for its hostility towards people.

That’s another reason why India’s government and citizens must express solidarity with Pakistanis. But there are other reasons too. This calamity’s effects will shape South Asia’s evolution and India-Pakistan relations for many years. Pakistan is critical to the fate of Afghanistan, itself part of the crucible in which world history is being remade.

Without Islamabad’s cooperation, the US cannot prosecute (or even securely end) its fraught war against al-Qaeda-Taliban. Afghanistan will remain pivotal to relations between the West and Islam, with momentous consequences for security and terrorism.

The floods will intensify Pakistan’s fragility. The country already meets many Western criteria of a failing (if not failed) state. Pakistan’s failure is in nobody’s interest, least of all India’s. It will disgorge serious problems (and their carriers), including religion-based extremism, on India’s borders, with horrifying consequences.

Social Discontent

The global public must work for a democratic Pakistan where jehadi extremism is quelled, the Army accepts civilian supremacy, and power distribution across ethnic groups and provinces is balanced. The floods will probably heighten social discontent, weaken Pakistan’s unity, and change the civil-military balance. They have destroyed numerous physical links that bind Pakistan, including roads, electricity and telecommunications.

Large-scale migration out of inundated areas is creating new tensions. If Pakistan doesn’t receive enough aid quickly, there could be food riots. The civilian government’s performance on relief and rehabilitation will determine its credibility. Already, there are protests against corruption in relief distribution.

Like the RSS in India, jehadi groups, from Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Jaish-e-Mohammed to Harkatul Mujahideen and Sipah-e-Sahaba, have fully mobilised themselves to deliver aid–and exploit the chance to build their bases.

The Army’s rescue and relief operation–fairly efficient, like in most countries–cannot justify support for martial law, as demanded by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement’s Altaf Hussain. The public is angry that the Army’s northwestern anti-militant offensive since 2009 has displaced 2 million people. Mr Hussain’s demand is meant to curry favour with the Army.

The Army’s preoccupation with flood relief will limit its role in the Afghanistan war as the US’s principal fighting ally. This could enormously complicate US war plans in Afghanistan.

Washington has no strategy to deal with the emerging situation. It reckons that donating aid to Pakistan will prevent it from collapsing and earn itself some goodwill. This won’t be easy. Most Pakistanis regard the US as an "enemy country", more than many do India.

Commentators like Ahmed Rashid that large parts of Pakistan cut off by the floods "will be taken over by the Pakistani Taliban, and affiliated extremist groups, and governance will collapse. … All this will dramatically loosen the state’s control over outlying areas… which could be captured quickly by local Taliban. Pakistan will become … a failed state with nuclear weapons …."

This hasn’t happened. But the Taliban’s influence will grow if the status quo continues. To help prevent this, the international community must offer Pakistan generous assistance and personnel support. And Pakistan’s rulers must ensure that the aid will provide a moderate secular alternative to extremist-run relief operations.

Neighbourly Duty

Besides a humanitarian obligation, India has a high stake in such an outcome. India is uniquely placed to quickly deliver foodgrains, clothes, tents, rubber dinghies and other material to Pakistan.

Yet, India has only offered a paltry $25 million. And Pakistan hesitated for weeks before saying–under US pressure–it will take the aid only if it’s routed through the United Nations. Neither government has shown moral clarity, maturity or grace. India, which is far better off than Pakistan, has diminished itself with its paltry offer.

Pakistan’s rulers have no moral right to refuse humanitarian aid for their citizens whom they can’t help enough. The people come first. Narrow political considerations of "sovereignty", which detach it from the people, are irrelevant.

India must redeem itself by raising its offer to the hundreds-of-millions level. India can afford it. It is India’s neighbourly duty to help the Pakistani people. In the process, India could earn their goodwill, or at least temper Pakistani hostility towards itself. Whether this happens or not, India must show generosity and solidarity with the Pakistani people–regardless of poor bilateral relations, Islamabad’s covert support to extremists in Afghanistan, its own northwest and elsewhere, and the recent breakdown of Foreign Minister-level talks. Solidarity with people is never wasted.